CosmoCoffee Forum Index CosmoCoffee

 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch  MemberlistSmartFeed   MemberlistMemberlist    RegisterRegister 
   ProfileProfile   Log inLog in 
Arxiv New Filter | Bookmarks & clubs | Arxiv ref/author:

Futures Market in Cosmology
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    CosmoCoffee Forum Index -> CosmoCoffee
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Adam Amara



Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 18
Affiliation: ETH

PostPosted: July 19 2005  Reply with quote

Seeing polls in cosmocoffee on 'what is dark energy' was a bit strange and to be honest I'm not sure these polls are useful. But, after thinking about it a little I realised that there clearly is some information in the polling, but it isn't being mined very well. Now, I'm not a big expert but from what I can gather markets can be highly efficient at extracting loads of little bits of information from many sources. Ok, its not a fisher matrix but it seems to work in the real world.

This may have been suggested before but I can't find a discussion in the suggestions so here goes. This may go against the ethos of "the purity of science", and I'm not sure if the community is big enough BUT why not set up a futures market for cosmology? People could trade on things like the cosmological parameters and cosmological constant vs varying w. I'm sure some body out there is more of a financial/market wizz then I am so should be able to say if this is technically possible or not. Assuming it is feasible would people be interested in trading in science?

Adam
Back to top
View user's profile [ Hidden ] Visit poster's website
Sarah Bridle



Joined: 24 Sep 2004
Posts: 149
Affiliation: University College London (UCL)

PostPosted: July 20 2005  Reply with quote

Quite a whacky idea Adam! Not sure I know enough about how futures work to comment much. But I'm assuming that you can make money by correctly guessing the right model.

What if David Spergel were to put millions on zre=17? How would this affect our reception of the WMAP2 results? Seems a bit worrying re "conflict of interests".

On the other hand, could it be a great way to fund future experiments?
Back to top
View user's profile   Visit poster's website
Adam Amara



Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 18
Affiliation: ETH

PostPosted: July 20 2005  Reply with quote

Hi Sarah, I'm glad I'm not disappointing you on the wacky ideas front. As far as David Spergel putting millions on WMAP results,
i) I suspect that with any well developed betting system, as more people bet the odds change, so I suspect the system will balance itself out.
ii) Are you advocating some kind of penalty again insider trading?
iii) My feeling is, if this is a way of sneaking out some information about the second year data, then you've just given a very strong reason why we should have markets.

I'm not sure, there might needs to be a regularity body that makes pots of money. If this happens then I totally agree that this could be turned into a revenue stream for things like future projects. Where you can have a good idea of what you should fund from what "shares" are doing well. Obviously lensing shares would be doing well at the moment.

Adam
Back to top
View user's profile [ Hidden ] Visit poster's website
Hans Kristian Eriksen



Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 57
Affiliation: ITA, University of Oslo

PostPosted: July 20 2005  Reply with quote

Adam Amara wrote:
Seeing polls in cosmocoffee on 'what is dark energy' was a bit strange and to be honest I'm not sure these polls are useful.


Ehhmm... Are those supposed to be taken seriously? If so, I should probably stop messing around... (I'm still the only one who answered "Yes, 15 sigma" on the Kolb et al. theory :-))
Back to top
View user's profile [ Hidden ] Visit poster's website
Adam Amara



Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 18
Affiliation: ETH

PostPosted: July 24 2005  Reply with quote

Quote:
I'm still the only one who answered "Yes, 15 sigma" on the Kolb et al. theory


That's point isn't it? Thinking the theory is right to 15 sigma is fine, the question is "are you prepared to put your money where your mouth is?" - at least that's how the saying goes ;-)

Considering there are lots of pools in the astronomy community on things like the football world cup and the basket ball season, I don't see why futures is such a big stretch of the imagination.

Adam
Back to top
View user's profile [ Hidden ] Visit poster's website
Benjamin Wandelt



Joined: 24 Sep 2004
Posts: 12
Affiliation: IAP, UPMC, Sorbonne Universites, and Illinois

PostPosted: December 07 2010  Reply with quote

I'm all for it. If nothing else it would settle the Bayesian vs Frequentist debate (or what's left of it) once and for all.
Back to top
View user's profile   Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    CosmoCoffee Forum Index -> CosmoCoffee All times are GMT + 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group. Sponsored by WordWeb online dictionary and dictionary software.